Stay up for the 2010 General Election, but don't bet on it

This coming General Election promises to be the most interesting and unpredictable contest for a generation. Not since 1992 have we seen a result so difficult to call. Except this time round, not only are the stakes higher, but the parties have changed quite a bit too and apathy has never been higher.

The rules have all changed in British politics. No longer do we have the Tories as a largely smaller-state, tax-cutting, middle-class party. And no longer is Labour the party of the working classes. In fact, the class structure and dynamic has changed. The ethnic make-up and population concentrations have changed. The state of the economy and the fabric of society has changed.

All the while, the Tories and Labour have bunkered down, abandoned their core vote and clung like a boy to a barn-door in a hurricane to base, statist, authoritarian instincts and weird 'liberal' social democratic notions of 'centrist' politics.

As a political geek of the geekiest order, I shall be booking time off work around the time of the big G.E. as I intend to stay up for all of it, watching every result pour in, taking apart every outcome and analysing it all to be reported here. As I'm so kind to do this, I expect you readers to also put your lives in hold in order to read this site. Have you ever read one of those 'self-fulfillment', 'self-improvement' books from Waterstones? Well this is your chance to implement that shit in full.

Despite the fact I'll be glued to the TV all over May 6th like a papier-mache cock, I won't be engaging in one of my regular, daily activities: betting. I won't be betting on the outcome, because there is fuck all value in it. William Hill is offering 8/13 on a Tory outright majority. Would you risk £1,300 to win £800 (the only sort of worthwhile bet in this instance) on an outcome that probably won't actually happen?

A hung parliament is 6/4. So, in aiming at that little runway pad called 'no overall majority', you get little more than Even money. How shit is that?

And a Labour win is 8-1. You're better off betting on England to win the World Cup.

Amusingly, William Hill are also offering odds on who will take over Brown as Labour leader. I'm sorry, has no-one informed William Hill head-office yet? Brown ain't going fucking nowhere, win, lose or draw. That fat, fucked-up, self-serving, ego-maniac cyclops would happily see his party get immolated in a clusterfuck of spittle-flecked internal warfare than give up the top seat. The Millibands will be in a Geriatric ward in Harlow sucking each other off by the time Brown decides to de-mob his own wobbly arse.

But back on point, why is the election so hard to call?

I put it down to a number of reasons. Here comes a bit of bullet point action...

• As I mentioned before, the 'core vote' concept no longer exists. Tribal voting loyalties are unraveling fast.
• Because of a combination of the above and unfettered mass immigration since 1997, Labour have hemorrhaged votes to the BNP.
• Because of a combination of the above and the fact the Tories are led by gutless pussies with self-serving, detached-from-the-real-world motivations, the Conservative Party is shedding votes to UKIP.
• Because of Iraq, loads of left wingers will never forgive Labour and will go Green.
• Apathy is rife across all areas of the electorate because of the above and also shit like the expenses scandal.
• The same bullshit education system that has enabled the top parties to continue with their social democratic agendas largely unchallenged has led to a politically illiterate and uninterested voting public inclined towards choices like not voting, or voting for parties out of unusual and irrational urges.
• There are no real reasons to vote for any of the main parties - in 1992, there was: Neil Kinnock was a fucking cunt, and John Major was seen as the safe bet. In all fairness, as much as Major was a silly, daft useless sod, he was a steady ship and by far the better candidate.
• There is real momentum behind 'other', minority parties in a way that hasn't been the case in living memory.

The indicators are all over the shop. People like Iain Dale talk the old language of political punditry, as though the main parties are still the big parties of old, commanding the same levers and pulling the same switches. Dale and his ilk have overlooked the fact that some years ago, someone pulled the plug out the socket and those levers and switches might look all flash and sexy, but they don't fucking do anything.

Instead there are bugs and weevils in the machinery. The wires have been chewed by termites and the mainframe has been hacked. Minority parties may gain seats, which will lead to more momentum (let's not forget that the concept of BNP MEPS would have been seen as hilariously ridiculous 10 years ago).

If there is a hung parliament, it is quite possible that a political situation may develop where power-brokers other than the Lib Dems appear. If not this time, then in future elections to come. If we do enter a phase of government by coalition, where the main parties continue to pussy out and go down the old social democratic, weirdly illiberal 'liberal' path, then Britain in the early 21st century will uncannily resemble Germany of the 1920s and 1930s. Weimar Germany to be precise.

Let's be fair, there are more similarities than differences. They were racked by massive debt because of the Treaty of Versailles; we are racked by massive debt because of a bloated, fucked public spending bill and a banking crisis exacerbated by Gordon Brown's false credit boom.

They were besieged by unpopular, useless, social democratic parties that failed to come up with strong leaders and ideas. So are we.

They laughed at a resurgent nationalistic political force, which appealed to peoples' sense of fear. We laugh at the BNP, and come up with the wrong counter attacks in the face of their increasingly bold rhetoric and mass popularity.

Their economy was knackered and social mobility and immigration became issues. We have all those things now.

The Deutsche Mark plummeted in value and bought less stuff. The pound has gone from hero to zero in the space of a few short years.

Germany saw their European neighbours as the source of enemies and enmity. Britain sees Europe as the bogeyman, with ever increasing levels of Anti-EU sentiment running through society.

The proof will be in the pudding, of course, and this is why I'll be paying much attention to the election. This election will be a real barometer for just how fucked this country is set to be in the next few years. The question is: how bad will the rioting and civil strife get and how pissed off with the people become, before the shifts occur than serve to realign and correct things?

Depressingly, I forecast less, not more, libertarianism in the years to come. The battle will be between the two forces of authoritarianism. Social democracy (the 'mainstream') versus protectionist, police-state National Socialists (BNP, and the hard left).

Meanwhile, I'll keep saving for my one-way ticket out of here.