Why do these things seem so obvious to everyone bar government?

As a betting man, I'm well aware about the powers of hindsight. The number of times I've been in a poker competition and I kick myself for making a bad move, when actually, the outcome of that move was not as clear cut or statistically probable as I led myself to believe.

The 'I knew that was going to happen' mantra is annoying for everyone concerned. Not just in gambling terms, but in the wider world around us. Because in reality, no-one can really predict anything. This is something Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote about in the brilliant book 'The Black Swan'.

So the lesson is: ignore the bullshitters, and don't gamble.

This aside, can anyone really say that they didn't see certain things coming in this country? Political and economic things. Like, for example, the current banking and economic disaster, which has transpired after years of blatant cheap debt and rampant spending and borrowing, fulled by a blatantly over-inflated housing market.

Like, for example, the rise in home grown terrorism which, weirdly enough, followed a period where Britain was getting involved in foreign wars and military related exploits in the Arab states.

Two very recent articles in the press got me asking these questions.

The Guardian has a piece about Claire Short's evidence at the Chilcot enquiry. While the Mail has a piece about Lord Myners's comments about the fact that the 50% tax rate will fail to bring in wanted revenues due to prospective tax dodging. (By the way, Myners is something called a 'City Minister'. For fuck sake...)

According to the 'G', Claire Short gave evidence about Blair misleading parliament and ordering an illegal war. Can anyone say this is news? How long have we known about this? How long have we understood the dodginess of the evidence and the fact that Number 10 under Blair was accumulating excessive Executive powers?

Bringing Short close to the heart of government was obviously a political ploy and a buying off of the left by Blair back in the day. She was always going to swan off after something like a potential war was on the cards, and she was always going to spill the beans years later down the line. Although, to be fair, the Chilcot enquiry is a fucking useless joke which will bring about fuck all in the way of outcome or consequence. Blair will never face justice and no-one will be punished. Fuck knows why tax money is going on this circus.

But really, I'm sick and tired of being told obvious stuff that I could have told people fucking years ago. Mr Boatang and I marched against that war half way through February of 2003. Nearly 7 years ago. We knew then that the whole case in favour of invasion was bollocks. So now, in 2010, to read stories about 'WOW, LOOK, BLAIR LIED!' is irritating to put it mildly.

The second piece in the Mail is equally blood-boiling. What the fuck was Darling thinking when he spluttered this joke policy: a 50% tax rate for those on over £150,000? Even the media were on to that one, explaining how it probably wouldn't work because the rich are generally good at hiding their wealth at the best of times.

But no, the government didn't see it. Or they did, but didn't care about how much tax it will earn the Treasury, because it was all based on an electoral ploy to soothe the tempers of the masses.

Either way, why does the government take action when the outcomes are so painfully obviously bad? I thought the whole point of doing a good job in power was to do things that are logical and effective?

I think I should go into politics and kick some fucking arse all over the shop. Whip some arses into line, inject some fucking logic into proceedings. Let's face it folks, DJ PM is the best hope you could ever hope for.

Adios.